The USA’s reluctance to commit to one propulsion type has given technology neutrality a major boost – but with the need for alternative powertrain solutions comes the need for better test tools
Why is the US backing away from mandating EVs, which are good for both the industry and the planet? It’s a controversial question that will immediately attract criticism for being naïve about the benefits of BEVs and shielded by an academic’s isolation from the costly realities of a fragmented powertrain strategy. But look beyond the emotions and the USA’s approach is not only a sensible low-carbon strategy but could also ultimately secure the dominance of BEVs.
The challenge faced in the rollout of BEVs is shaped around the transition from the early adopters to the early majority. Those who are excited by the technology and by being in the vanguard of green passenger transportation are willing to overlook many of its current limitations. Those who just want to get around at an affordable price are proving to be less enthusiastic. Nothing will kill the transition faster than customer frustration, whether that is caused by an underdeveloped product, a challenging charging infrastructure, painful depreciation or soaring insurance premiums driven by poor repairability.
What the industry needs is breathing space to tackle these issues – and that’s what the USA has granted us.
There is a lot that we can do at a vehicle level to help overcome these challenges. Let’s start with batteries: they are heavy, very expensive and the supply chains are increasingly affected by rules of origin, for various reasons. Consequently, one of our jobs as research engineers is to minimize the battery capacity needed to achieve the overall vehicle performance goals. Add to that what one might call ‘charging anxiety’, and you have a compelling justification for a new generation of highly efficient, highly integrated hybrids.
It remains to be seen whether they prove to be a bridge to a fully electric future or retain relevance in their own right as fuels are decarbonized. Either outcome is a win if it helps the industry get to a sustainable position more quickly.
At IAAPS, we have always been enthusiastic supporters of a wide range of propulsion options – fully electric, hybrids and renewable-fuel vehicles including both hydrogen fuel cell and hydrogen combustion. This means we have maintained our internal combustion engine research and innovation capability while simultaneously investing in expertise and development resources for electric powertrains.
One exciting possibility is a new generation of hybrids that integrate an efficient, simplified ICE with a larger-than-usual electric drive. The engine can then be right sized for the majority of drive cycles without the need to include complex and costly technologies that would otherwise be required to extend the envelopes of power, torque and dynamic response. This enables us to get closer to the ideal of a single operating point ICE optimized for efficiency. The fuel that this engine will burn is an open question, with hydrogen a strong contender.
Delivering these (and other) low-carbon technologies efficiently will require significant progress in digital tools, especially for system-level decision making and the validation of complex systems with a large number of interactions. The growing focus on price, especially of BEVs, requires new approaches to be assessed and optimized, which requires a robust and highly efficient methodology.
At an individual system level, there is already an impressive range of proprietary tools available, but our work with industry shows that their capability often far exceeds the abilities of embedded processes to use them to deliver the promised savings. The result is a continuing reliance on experimentally intensive development and validation.
In other areas, the digital tools just aren’t good enough yet, either because the experimental data hasn’t been delivered or because the mechanisms are insufficiently understood. Battery modeling is a good example, especially around degradation – an area of research that is being greatly helped by over-the-air data from in-service vehicles.
Similarly with software control, it’s easy to enthuse about the software-defined vehicle but the complexity of validation required to explore the unknown unknowns has caused costly delays in several high-profile vehicle programs.
The much-publicized technology agnosticism of the new US regulations opens exciting new roadmaps for pragmatic powertrain strategies but also brings the challenges of greater technology diversity.
Let’s use this breathing space to take a step back and assess where we need to be and how we can get there as quickly and efficiently as possible. For many vehicle manufacturers, there is substantial competitive advantage waiting to be unleashed.
